ISGPS Fistula Risk Score

Post-Operative Pancreatic Fistula Risk — Intraoperative Assessment after Pancreaticoduodenectomy

Four intraoperative factors predict the risk of clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Guides drain placement, octreotide use, and anastomotic technique.

Pancreatic Surgery HPB Surgery Post-operative
ISGPS Fistula Risk Score
Score (out of 10)
Select values above and calculate

Score Interpretation

Score Risk Category POPF Rate Clinical Action
0 Negligible ~0% Routine; consider no drain
1–2 Low ~6.6% Standard drain; POD3 removal if amylase normal
3–6 Intermediate ~12.9% Maintain drain; octreotide; serial amylase
7–10 High ~28.1% Maintain drain; prophylactic measures; CT if not settling

Factor Scoring

Factor Value Points
Gland textureFirm0
Gland textureSoft2
Duct diameter≥5 mm0
Duct diameter4 mm1
Duct diameter3 mm2
Duct diameter2 mm3
Duct diameter≤1 mm4
PathologyPDAC / pancreatitis0
PathologyAmpullary / duodenal / cystic2
PathologyOther1
Blood loss≤400 mL0
Blood loss401–700 mL1
Blood loss701–1000 mL2
Blood loss>1000 mL3

Clinical Application

  • Derived by Callery et al. (2013) for risk stratification after pancreaticoduodenectomy (Whipple procedure).
  • Soft pancreas + small duct diameter = highest risk combination; common in IPMN and ampullary cancer.
  • Score 0: some centres omit routine drain placement; score 7–10: consider modified pancreaticojejunostomy or duct occlusion.
  • Prophylactic octreotide (200–300 mcg TDS SC) reduces POPF rate in intermediate and high-risk patients.
  • Drain amylase on POD1 >5000 IU/L independently predicts POPF (Molinari et al.).
  • Early drain removal (POD3) when POD1 and POD3 amylase <3× serum ULN is safe and reduces infection risk.
  • For POPF Grade B/C occurring postoperatively, use the ISGPS POPF Grading tool.

References

  1. Callery MP, et al. A prospectively validated clinical risk score accurately predicts pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy. J Am Coll Surg. 2013;216(1):1–14.
  2. Bassi C, et al. The 2016 update of the International Study Group (ISGPS) definition and grading of postoperative pancreatic fistula. Surgery. 2017;161(3):584–591.
  3. Molinari E, et al. Amylase value in drains after pancreatic resection as predictive factor of postoperative pancreatic fistula. Ann Surg. 2007.

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