Stroke Risk in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation
Estimates annual stroke risk in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and guides decision-making about anticoagulation therapy per ESC 2020 guidelines. Score ≥2 in men or ≥3 in women warrants oral anticoagulation.
Check all that apply. Score updates automatically.
| C | Congestive heart failure or LV systolic dysfunction — 1 point |
| H | Hypertension (BP consistently >140/90 or on antihypertensive treatment) — 1 point |
| A₂ | Age ≥75 years — 2 points (mutually exclusive with A below) |
| D | Diabetes mellitus (fasting glucose >125 mg/dL or on treatment) — 1 point |
| S₂ | Prior stroke, TIA, or systemic thromboembolism — 2 points |
| V | Vascular disease (prior MI, peripheral arterial disease, or aortic plaque) — 1 point |
| A | Age 65–74 years — 1 point (mutually exclusive with A₂ above) |
| Sc | Female sex — 1 point (sex modifier, not independent risk factor per se) |
Maximum score = 9. Age ≥75 (A₂) and Age 65–74 (A) are mutually exclusive — a patient can only score on one age category.
| Score | Annual Stroke Risk | Risk Category | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | Low | No antithrombotic therapy |
| 1 | 1.3% | Low–Moderate | Males: Consider OAC. Females: No therapy (score = 1 due to sex alone = low risk) |
| 2 | 2.2% | Moderate | OAC recommended (NOAC preferred) |
| 3 | 3.2% | Moderate–High | OAC recommended |
| 4 | 4.0% | High | OAC recommended |
| 5 | 6.7% | High | OAC recommended |
| 6 | 9.8% | High | OAC recommended |
| 7 | 9.6% | High | OAC recommended |
| 8 | 12.5% | High | OAC recommended |
| 9 | 15.2% | Very High | OAC recommended |
Data from Lip GYH et al. Chest 2010 (Euro Heart Survey cohort). OAC = oral anticoagulation.
The ESC 2020 AF Guidelines use a "identify stroke risk, then assess bleeding risk" approach:
Female sex adds 1 point but is a risk modifier, not an independent stroke risk factor. Importantly:
| Drug | Target | Dosing (standard AF) | Key Consideration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apixaban | Factor Xa | 5 mg BD (2.5 mg BD if ≥2 of: age ≥80, weight ≤60 kg, creatinine ≥133 µmol/L) | Lowest bleeding risk in ARISTOTLE; preferred in renal impairment |
| Rivaroxaban | Factor Xa | 20 mg OD with evening meal (15 mg OD if CrCl 15–49 mL/min) | Once-daily dosing; ROCKET-AF trial |
| Dabigatran | Thrombin | 150 mg BD (110 mg BD if age ≥80 or high bleeding risk) | Specific reversal agent (idarucizumab); avoid if CrCl <30 |
| Edoxaban | Factor Xa | 60 mg OD (30 mg OD if CrCl 15–50, weight ≤60 kg, or P-gp inhibitor) | ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48; requires initial parenteral anticoagulation |
CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED should always be assessed together. A high HAS-BLED score does not mean anticoagulation should be withheld — it means modifiable bleeding risk factors should be addressed. Most patients with high stroke risk also have high bleeding risk, and the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation still favours treatment in score ≥2.