CHA₂DS₂-VASc Score

Stroke Risk in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation

Estimates annual stroke risk in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and guides decision-making about anticoagulation therapy per ESC 2020 guidelines. Score ≥2 in men or ≥3 in women warrants oral anticoagulation.

CardiologyAtrial FibrillationStroke PreventionESC 2020
CHA₂DS₂-VASc Calculator

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0
Low Risk
0%
Annual Stroke Risk
No therapy
Recommendation

Scoring Components

CCongestive heart failure or LV systolic dysfunction — 1 point
HHypertension (BP consistently >140/90 or on antihypertensive treatment) — 1 point
A₂Age ≥75 years — 2 points (mutually exclusive with A below)
DDiabetes mellitus (fasting glucose >125 mg/dL or on treatment) — 1 point
S₂Prior stroke, TIA, or systemic thromboembolism — 2 points
VVascular disease (prior MI, peripheral arterial disease, or aortic plaque) — 1 point
AAge 65–74 years — 1 point (mutually exclusive with A₂ above)
ScFemale sex — 1 point (sex modifier, not independent risk factor per se)

Maximum score = 9. Age ≥75 (A₂) and Age 65–74 (A) are mutually exclusive — a patient can only score on one age category.

Annual Stroke Risk by Score

ScoreAnnual Stroke RiskRisk CategoryRecommendation
00%LowNo antithrombotic therapy
11.3%Low–ModerateMales: Consider OAC. Females: No therapy (score = 1 due to sex alone = low risk)
22.2%ModerateOAC recommended (NOAC preferred)
33.2%Moderate–HighOAC recommended
44.0%HighOAC recommended
56.7%HighOAC recommended
69.8%HighOAC recommended
79.6%HighOAC recommended
812.5%HighOAC recommended
915.2%Very HighOAC recommended

Data from Lip GYH et al. Chest 2010 (Euro Heart Survey cohort). OAC = oral anticoagulation.

ESC 2020 Guideline Recommendations

The ESC 2020 AF Guidelines use a "identify stroke risk, then assess bleeding risk" approach:

  • Step 1: Identify patients with truly low stroke risk (CHA₂DS₂-VASc = 0 in men, or 1 in women) — no antithrombotic therapy needed.
  • Step 2: In patients with ≥1 additional stroke risk factor (score ≥1 in men, ≥2 in women), offer OAC. Score 1 in males is a grey zone — shared decision making.
  • Step 3: Once decision to anticoagulate is made, assess bleeding risk using HAS-BLED to identify and correct modifiable bleeding risk factors — not to deny anticoagulation.
  • NOACs first: Apixaban, rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban are all preferred over warfarin (VKA) in patients with non-valvular AF who are eligible for NOAC therapy (Class I, Level A).

Sex as a Risk Modifier

Female sex adds 1 point but is a risk modifier, not an independent stroke risk factor. Importantly:

  • A woman with a score of 1 (solely because of female sex) is classified as low risk — no anticoagulation needed.
  • A woman with a score of 2 (1 for female sex + ≥1 other risk factor) should be offered OAC.
  • A man with a score of 1 (one actual risk factor) is in the moderate range — consider anticoagulation based on individual assessment.
  • This asymmetry means women effectively need ≥2 non-sex risk factors to warrant OAC, while men need ≥1.

Available NOACs

DrugTargetDosing (standard AF)Key Consideration
ApixabanFactor Xa5 mg BD (2.5 mg BD if ≥2 of: age ≥80, weight ≤60 kg, creatinine ≥133 µmol/L)Lowest bleeding risk in ARISTOTLE; preferred in renal impairment
RivaroxabanFactor Xa20 mg OD with evening meal (15 mg OD if CrCl 15–49 mL/min)Once-daily dosing; ROCKET-AF trial
DabigatranThrombin150 mg BD (110 mg BD if age ≥80 or high bleeding risk)Specific reversal agent (idarucizumab); avoid if CrCl <30
EdoxabanFactor Xa60 mg OD (30 mg OD if CrCl 15–50, weight ≤60 kg, or P-gp inhibitor)ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48; requires initial parenteral anticoagulation

Interaction with HAS-BLED

CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED should always be assessed together. A high HAS-BLED score does not mean anticoagulation should be withheld — it means modifiable bleeding risk factors should be addressed. Most patients with high stroke risk also have high bleeding risk, and the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation still favours treatment in score ≥2.

References

  1. Lip GYH, Nieuwlaat R, Pisters R, et al. Refining clinical risk stratification for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation using a novel risk factor-based approach. Chest. 2010;137(2):263–272.
  2. Hindricks G, Potpara T, Dagres N, et al. 2020 ESC Guidelines for the diagnosis and management of atrial fibrillation. Eur Heart J. 2021;42(5):373–498.
  3. Lip GYH. Implications of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED Scores for Thromboprophylaxis in Atrial Fibrillation. Am J Med. 2011;124(2):111–114.

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