CR-POSSUM

Colorectal-POSSUM Mortality Prediction
Predicts 30-day operative mortality for colorectal surgery using a 12-factor Physiological Score and a 5-factor Colorectal Operative Score. More accurate than standard POSSUM for colorectal resections.
Colorectal Surgery Risk Prediction Perioperative Mortality
CR-POSSUM Parameters
Section A — Physiological Score (PS)
Section B — Colorectal Operative Score (OS)

CR-POSSUM Formula

L = −9.167 + (0.338 × Physiological Score) + (0.298 × Colorectal Operative Score) Predicted 30-day mortality = 100 × eL / (1 + eL)

PS range: 12–88 (12 variables scored 1/2/4/8). OS range: 5–40 (5 variables scored 1/2/4/8). Minimum L = −9.167 + (0.338×12) + (0.298×5) = −3.619 → ~2.6% mortality. Maximum theoretical mortality approaches 100%.

Interpretation

Predicted MortalityRisk LevelRecommendation
< 5%LowStandard perioperative care
5–10%ModerateHDU-level post-operative care; senior anaesthetist
10–20%HighICU booking; consultant-led surgery; consider CPEX testing
> 20%Very HighDetailed informed consent; palliative alternatives should be discussed

Physiological Score Parameters

ParameterScore 1Score 2Score 4Score 8
Age (yr)≤ 6061–7071–80> 80
CardiacNo failureMedication/hypertensionOedema/warfarinRaised JVP / CXR cardiomegaly
RespiratoryNormalMild dyspnoeaModerate dyspnoeaSevere/O₂ dependent
Systolic BP110–130131–170 or 100–109≥171 or 90–99< 90
Pulse (bpm)50–8081–100 or 40–49101–120>120 or <40
GCS1512–149–11< 9
Hb (g/dL)Normal rangeMildly abnormalModerately abnormal<10 or >18
WBC (×10⁹/L)4–1010.1–20 or 3.1–3.9>20 or 1–3< 1
Urea (mmol/L)< 7.57.5–1010.1–15> 15
Sodium (mEq/L)> 136131–135126–130≤ 125
Potassium (mEq/L)3.5–5.03.2–3.4 or 5.1–5.32.9–3.1 or 5.4–5.9<2.9 or ≥6.0
ECGNormal SRAF (60–90)Any abnormality

Colorectal Operative Score Parameters

ParameterScore 1Score 2Score 4Score 8
Operative typeMinorModerate (right hemi, sigmoid)Major (APR, AR, total colectomy)Major+ (exenteration)
No. of procedures12> 2
Peritoneal contaminationNoneSerosal soilingLocal pusFree faeces/pus/blood
MalignancyNonePrimary onlyNode metastasesDistant metastases
PresentationElectiveEmergency (>2h)Emergency (<2h)

Clinical Application

  • CR-POSSUM was derived from 6,883 colorectal operations in 15 UK centres (Tekkis 2004) — it corrects the over-prediction of mortality by standard P-POSSUM in colorectal resections
  • Use for all major colorectal resections including anterior resection, abdominoperineal resection (APR), Hartmann's procedure, subtotal/total colectomy
  • Does not stratify by laparoscopic vs open approach — predicts mortality only, not morbidity or length of stay
  • SNAP (Second National Audit Programme) uses POSSUM as the standard risk-adjustment tool in UK colorectal audit
  • For consent and counselling purposes, use in conjunction with clinical judgement — a predicted mortality of 15% warrants detailed informed consent and discussion of palliative alternatives

References

  1. Tekkis PP, et al. Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Br J Surg. 2004;91(9):1183–1192.
  2. Copeland GP, et al. POSSUM: a scoring system for surgical audit. Br J Surg. 1991;78(3):355–360.

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